Objectives of the service
Aircraft contrails are a significant but often overlooked contributor to climate change. Current estimates suggest their warming effect may represent 30 - 60% of aviation's direct CO₂ impact. Despite this, they remain poorly understood because most assessments rely on theoretical models rather than real-world observations.
New EU regulations are raising the stakes. From 2025, airlines must report contrail impacts for all EU flights, and by 2028 these may carry direct financial costs under the EU's carbon trading scheme.
Estuaire is developing a satellite-based service to improve how contrails are measured. Rather than relying on weather models alone, we aim to detect and track contrails from space using imagery from multiple weather satellites, covering over 40 million flights globally. Each contrail would then be matched to a specific flight, giving airlines far more accurate data on their climate impact.
This approach of combining satellite observations with flight and weather data has never been attempted at a global scale. The current project is a feasibility study designed to test and mature the technology.
Ultimately, Estuaire's purpose is to offer airlines a reliable, evidence-based tool to monitor and reduce their full climate footprint, positioning the company as a leader in an increasingly regulated and environmentally scrutinised industry.
Users and their needs
Estuaire's primary users are European airlines seeking to measure and reduce their climate impact beyond CO₂. Two European carriers have already completed contrail avoidance trials using Estuaire's platform, with results validated against satellite imagery. Users are based across Europe.
User needs:
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Accurate, evidence-based monitoring of non-CO₂ emissions (particularly contrails) to support emissions reduction
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Verification of contrail avoidance manoeuvres through independent observational data
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Analytical insights from avoidance trials already being conducted
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Integration of observational data into existing workflows, via proprietary platforms, APIs, or automated data transfers
Key challenges for the project:
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Satellite data does not offer absolute ground truth, requiring careful validation methodology
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Non-CO₂ effects remain unpriced under current regulation (as of April 2026)
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Workflow integration must be flexible enough to suit varied airline operational environments
Service/ system concept
The project provides airlines with contrail monitoring and avoidance solutions. Using satellite detection of contrails enables validation of weather models-based predictions and attributions to flights. This will ultimately be delivered as a cloud-native SaaS solution that monitors flights globally in near-real time, ingesting data from three different satellite platforms. The users will be able to reduce climate impact of their flights through contrail avoidance, as well as achieve regulatory compliance regarding reporting of contrail impacts.
The system has two main components - contrail detection and attribution. It uses machine learning to identify contrails using satellite imagery. Data from multiple geostationary satellites is used to enable global coverage. When contrails are detected, they are compared to flight tracks over the same region, in an effort to associate the contrail with a specific flight. This is the attribution stage. The result is that contrails (which may represent a significant portion of the climate impact of flights) can be monitored on a per-flight basis, allowing airlines to achieve accurate reporting and reduction of their climate impact.
Space Added Value
The project uses geostationary imagery (1-3km resolution, 5-15 minute updates) from NASA/NOAA GOES-R series using data from the ABI imagers, the Eumetsat’s MTG using data from the FCI instrument, and the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Himawari AHI. Using these satellite platforms enables continual global coverage. Thermal infrared bands create ash RGB composites to distinguish cloud types and cirrus. Near-infrared and visible imagery aid daytime contrail detection.
Current Status
Replicated the state-of-the-art methods for contrail detection, and a near state-of-the-art algorithm for contrail-flight attribution. Built a cloud-native batch processing pipeline. Tested the system on satellite imagery from GOES and MTG, along with real flight data from contrail avoidance trials with customers. Next steps include improving the detection and attribution components, and scaling the solution to achieve real-time global coverage.
Prime Contractor(s)
