Objectives of the service
The SmartSolar-H2 study investigates whether an Earth-Observation-driven decision-support service can improve the planning and operation of solar-powered green-hydrogen production. Solar-hydrogen sites face uncertain renewable generation, variable grid prices and limited storage, which make hydrogen output and cost difficult to anticipate. The study examines how satellite observations and weather forecasts, combined with energy-system modelling, translate expected sunshine into the operational metrics that producers and investors use: expected hydrogen volume, electricity-import requirement, and average production cost. The objective is to establish the technical feasibility, user value and commercial viability of such a service, and to define a Proof of Concept and a roadmap toward an operational service.
Users and their needs
Two primary user groups are addressed. Hydrogen producers and operators, running solar-plus-grid hydrogen facilities, need advance visibility of expected solar generation, grid-import requirements and hydrogen production cost so that production, storage and supply can be planned rather than reacted to, while keeping electrolyser operation stable. Investors, developers and renewable-asset owners need evidence-based assessment of whether a candidate site can deliver stable, cost-effective hydrogen production before capital is committed. Stakeholder engagement during the study, including a questionnaire completed by hydrogen-sector organisations, confirmed these needs: respondents prioritised matching production to customer demand, electrolyser-utilisation optimisation and investment decisions, valued multi-day forecast horizons, and regarded a 5-10% reduction in hydrogen production cost as highly valuable.
Service/ system concept
SmartSolar-H2 combines three capabilities into a single processing chain. Geostationary Earth Observation (Meteosat) provides frequent, spatially detailed observation of cloud fields, while machine-learning weather forecasts from ECMWF extend the view across the multi-day planning horizon. These are fused and bias-corrected against ground measurements to produce site-level solar-generation forecasts. An energy-system and cost model then converts the generation forecast into the operator decision variables: usable energy, grid-import requirement, and hydrogen production cost and volume. Results are delivered through a dashboard and an application-programming interface, providing operating-schedule and capacity guidance for producers and site and investment assessments for developers. Independent validation of the forecasts is provided by Blue Sky Imaging using established reference networks.
Space Added Value
Space assets are central to the service. The short-term swings in solar power that drive hydrogen cost are caused by moving cloud fields, which can only be observed at the necessary frequency and coverage from geostationary Earth Observation; ground-based instruments see only a few kilometres and support forecasts of minutes. Meteosat Second and Third Generation provide synchronous observation every 5-15 minutes, and the higher spatial resolution of the latest instruments materially reduces uncertainty on the broken-cloud days that matter most. Complementing this, ECMWF forecasts, including the machine-learning AIFS model adopted as the study baseline, extend prediction across the multi-day horizon that hydrogen offtake commitments require. The combination of geostationary observation for the intra-day horizon and forecast models for the multi-day horizon covers the full operational planning window.
Current Status
The feasibility study began in April 2026 and is delivered by Earth RayView Ltd with Blue Sky Imaging Ltd and PlusZero Ltd. During the first quarter the consortium refined the service concept from a narrow curtailment-capture idea toward forecasting hydrogen production cost and volume, in response to stakeholder feedback. A solar-generation forecasting approach has been established and the ECMWF AIFS model adopted as the baseline after validation against reference sites; an independent review of irradiance-forecasting methods has been completed; and the system architecture and Proof-of-Concept outline have been defined. A stakeholder questionnaire has been distributed across the hydrogen sector, with initial responses confirming the priority user needs and the commercial value of the service.
Prime Contractor(s)
Subcontractor(s)
