It is estimated that 1 in 4 people in Europe have pollen allergies and these can have a major impact on the lives of sufferers, affecting their health, quality of life and productivity. Research shows that the problem is getting worse as climate change is extending the pollen season. Norwegian company Airmine has developed a new space-enabled pollen forecasting system under ESA’s Business Applications and Space Solutions programme which can help people plan their day-to-day activities to reduce allergic reactions.
Recent studies have shown that hay fever symptoms are actually more severe in urban areas, with the allergens on pollen grain from urban trees and grasses made more potent by the chemicals in polluted air. With pollen allergies also triggering flare-ups of serious lung conditions such as asthma, Airmine recognised the need to improve pollen forecasting and help hay fever sufferers take more control. With support from ESA, through a Feasibility Study and a Demonstration Project, they have developed an app which offers pollen risk forecasts for today and tomorrow, risk maps and a pollen diary for logging of allergy symptoms.
The pollen model is informed by a range of insights, including satellite imaging data to help determine land use and map pollen-producing vegetation. This is combined with weather data, ground-based sensors and topography to detect and forecast levels of different types of pollen down to a 40x40 metre resolution.
Most people are allergic to specific types of pollen, such as grass or birch tree pollen. For the project, this meant that Airmine needed to know the location, density and distribution of allergenic plant species to be able to create useful forecasts. In order to do this, Airmine manually mapped plant species and used public tree databases in sample areas of land. They then combined this data with satellite images of the area to create a machine learning algorithm which is able to distinguish between species. This algorithm was then applied to areas where the nature of the vegetation was unknown to verify the results, iteratively developing the algorithm up to 82% accuracy for plant identification.
“We’re proud to have supported Airmine to harness the power of Sentinel-2 to improve pollen forecasting. This is a great example of how satellite technology can be at the heart of services that create healthier places to live and work – a central aim of our Smart and Green Cities initiative” said Davide Coppola, Head of Space Applications Section at ESA.
The first forecasting models covered Norway, and have now expanded across the Nordic countries, the UK and parts of Australia and South Africa, as well as major cities in parts of Central and South America, the USA and Poland.
Having established and automated reliable pollen models, Airmine has developed a number of options for municipalities, pharmaceutical companies and individuals to access local forecasts. The free Airmine app launched in May 2023 and has been downloaded over 70,000 times. It provides easy-to-use ‘heatmap’ forecasting for seven different allergenic species. Users are also invited to report symptom severity through the app, and these citizen insights and data help to continually improve forecasting accuracy. By producing actionable insights and analytics for personal healthcare, Airmine allows individuals to adapt their activity to minimise exposure to potential allergy triggers and prevent severe allergic or respiratory reactions. This in turn reduces the demand on healthcare services.
Airmine also provides web widgets and integrations to embed local pollen information onto websites and digital signage, for instance in healthcare and municipal settings, expanding the reach of the service beyond those who download the app and offering the potential to inform planting policy in urban spaces.
Kristin Pettersen Grenan, Airmine CEO, said "the invaluable support from the Norwegian Space Agency and ESA has enabled us to develop ground-breaking new technology which, thanks to the use of satellites, is highly scalable. This enables us to fulfil our commitment to deliver the highest quality pollen app to help pollen allergy sufferers worldwide."